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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."